A History of Home Values
The Yale economist Robert J. Shiller created an index of American housing prices going back to 1890. It is based on sale prices of standard existing houses, not new construction, to track the value of housing as an investment over time. It presents housing values in consistent terms over 116 years, factoring out the effects of inflation.

The 1890 benchmark is 100 on the chart. If a standard house sold in 1890 for $100,000 (inflation- adjusted to today's dollars), an equivalent standard house would have sold for $66,000 in 1920 (66 on the index scale) and $199,000 in 2006 (199 on the index scale, or 99 percent higer than 1890).

Graph of Housing Prices: 1890-2020

Decline and Run-Up
Prices dropped as mass production techniques appeared early in the 20th century. Prices spiked with post-war housing demand

Boom Times
Two gains in recent decades were followed by returns to levels consistent since the late 1950's. Since 1997, the index has risen about 83 percent.

A Likely Future of Home Values
The projected future of house prices is based on the last two real estate cycles.
The two previous downturns have been applied to the current boom. The curves are scaled to fit the average market trend since World War II.