Recession Library
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A complete history of economic recession cycles in the United States.
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Four Historic Bad Bear Markets

Four Historic Bad Bear Markets

Four Historic Bad Bear Markets

U.S. Automotive Vehicle Sales History

U.S. Automotive Vehicle Sales History

This graph shows monthly automotive vehicle sales as reported by the BEA at a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR). This shows that sales have plunged to just over a 10 million annual rate - the lowest rate since the early '80s recession.

US Retail Sales Collapse Graph

US Retail Sales Collapse Graph

The following graph shows the year-over-year change in nominal and real retail sales since 1993.

U.S. Industrial Output & Production

U.S. Industrial Output & Production

This graph shows a very sharp decline in industrial output, and industrial production is a key to the depth of the economic slowdown. Up until recently export growth had been strong, and the decline in industrial production had been mild. Now, with the global economy slowing sharply, industrial production and capacity utilization are falling off a cliff. Also the significant decline in capacity utilization suggests less investment in non-residential structures for some time

U.S. Miles Driven Declines Sharply

U.S. Miles Driven Declines Sharply

This graph shows the annual change in the rolling 12 month average of U.S. vehicles miles driven. Note: the rolling 12 month average is used to remove noise and seasonality.

Annual Existing Home Inventory & Sales

Annual Existing Home Inventory & Sales

This graph shows annual existing home sales (since 1969) and year end inventory (since 1982). This shows sales are the lowest level since 1997, and inventory is just below the year end record set in 2007.

Initial & Continued Unemployment Claims

Initial & Continued Unemployment Claims

This graph shows weekly claims and continued claims since 1971. The four week moving average is at 519,250; a decline from the recent peak of 558,750 in December. Continued claims are at 4.61 million, just below the high time peak of 4.71 million in 1982.

Existing Home Sales History

Existing Home Sales History

The first graph shows existing home sales since 1993.

Crude Oil Spot & Import Price History

Crude Oil Spot & Import Price History

This graph compares monthly U.S. spot crude oil prices from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) with import crude oil prices from the Census Bureau trade report.

US Homeowner Vacancy Rate

US Homeowner Vacancy Rate

The homeowner vacancy rate was 2.9% in Q4 2008. A normal rate for recent years appears to be about 1.7%. There is some noise in the series, quarter to quarter, so perhaps the vacancy rate has stabilized in the 2.7% to 2.9% range.

This leaves the homeowner vacancy rate almost 1.2% above normal, and with approximately 75 million homeowner occupied homes; this gives about 900 thousand excess vacant homes.

U.S. Trade Deficit & Surplus History

U.S. Trade Deficit & Surplus History

This Graph shows the U.S. trade deficit / surplus as a percent of GDP since 1960 through Q3 2008. The trade deficit as a percent of GDP started declining in 2006, even with the rapid increase in oil prices.

Housing Starts at Record Low

Housing Starts at Record Low

Total housing starts were at 464 thousand (SAAR) in January, by far the lowest level since the Census Bureau began tracking housing starts in 1959.

Single-family starts were at 347 thousand in January; also the lowest level ever recorded (since 1959).
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U.S. Trade Exports & Imports History

U.S. Trade Exports & Imports History

This graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through November 2008 (most recent data). The recent rapid decline in foreign trade is clear. Note that a large portion of the decline in imports is related to the fall in oil prices.